Playing 6-max
by kong on Apr.16, 2009, under Poker
Been playing .25/.50 6-max again and need to start testing some of my thoughts about the average player.
For example, have noticed an increase in the number of players who will cold call a raise behind and lead the flop, turn and river on low boards. My thought is that the average player will not fire with nothing in his hand into two players on the flop and turn but I think I’ve got this wrong. In looking at hands I’ve folded on the river, villain won much of the time without showing his cards.
Over the next week, if I’m raised and get a cold-caller and a blind call, I’m going to go to the river regardless and see how it plays out. The math on a few scenarios indicates calling down with hands that are likely to be better than their range is +EV.
For example, you raise post flop and get two callers, the board is low and one opponent leads the flop, both call. Turn is another rag and the bettor leads again, one fold, you call. You miss the river and bettor leads again, you call.
Opponent will hit a pair on the flop 32.38% of the time, he’ll have air 67.62%. If neither of us have improved:
.6762(8.5BB) – .3238(2.5) = +4.94BB
If he checks the turn and then bets the river unimproved, a call is +3.58BB.
If the second opponent will call the turn because he improved, a river call is -0.78 but all you need is an 8% chance he is bluffing the river unimproved to break even.
It’s still read dependent but think I need to try the call down approach for at least a week and track what happens.
